That’s how many users are currently on social networks worldwide. (Source: WikiAnswers, 2007. http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_people_use_social_networking_sites_worldwide)
The number is staggering.
There are more users in the Webosphere than there are in some major metropolitan cities — even entire countries. So, it’s no wonder that a new social networking site seems to pop up daily, all vying for a piece of this kajillion* dollar pie.
*may not be an actual numeric value.
But as I ponder the sheer volume of social networks out there, the thought of joining yet another one seems unthinkable. Stressful even. So much so that even if the social network equivalent of nirvana launched, I’m not sure I’d sign up.
And I don’t think I’m alone.
For most of us — especially people like me who are heavily entrenched in the space — it’s more than just being ’social networked out.’ It’s time-consuming — and taxing — to undergo the process of sign up through daily use.
There are at least 10 steps involved to get started on a whole new site:
- Sign up/complete registration form
- Confirm e-mail address
- Upload avatar
- Set up profile
- Import contacts (where available)
- Find friends
- Rebuild community
- ‘Re-learn’ an entire new platform
- Add and/or change socnet URL on signatures, websites, etc.
- Begin using regularly
Some users may skip some of those steps, opting to check out the application more thoroughly before uploading a pic or inviting friends, for example, but the point is that it’s not as simple as 1-2-3 to integrate another social network into your online routine.
I think the fact that people are still using Twitter, henceforth referred to as the ‘Twitter Epidemic,’ is proof positive that quality is not the overarching factor when choosing a social network. MySpace (pre-face lift) is yet another shining example that an error-free, well designed site is not a pre-requisite for mass consumption.
So, why is it that we continue to nurture the dysfunctional relationships with our current socnets, opting to settle for shoddy service, incessant glitches, poorly architected platforms and overall medicority?
There are many contributing factors, but the top three that keep bubbling to the surface are:
The grass may be greener on the other side but I already landscaped over here.
This is the biggest deterrant to adopting a new socnet. All of us have spent significant amounts of time carefully cultivating our community and nurturing our network. We’ve invested countless hours, energy and pieces of ourselves building relationships, uploading pics and making our profiles a unique representation of who we are. What’s more, our connections have done the same thing, resulting in a living, breathing online universe that, to many of us, is a second home. And with that, comes an affinity for the product despite any failings it may have. That’s tough to walk away from — even for a slick new interface or totally bug-free experience (but we’ve all become so jaded we don’t believe it anyway).
I really loved the General Tso’s Chicken at the Chinese restaurant next door and they closed down.
This is a huge issue right now with the volatile web 2.0 world and start ups launching with a big media splash only to disappear as quickly as they came. The recent coup with PodTech doesn’t help instill confidence either. Users are skeptical of social ’saviors’ spouting salvation. And no one wants to spend the time setting up — and acclimating to — a new network to find it yanked from cyberspace shortly thereafter. So many bide their time, waiting to see if it ‘catches on,’ which ironically creates a self-fulfilling prophesy. If everyone is waiting for ‘the other person’ to try it out, it’s doomed to a dismal fate. Even the die-hard beta junkies aren’t as fervent about snagging invites or testing out the latest (and probably not the greatest) service. And it’s not that we’ve become lazy so much as disenchanted. The new car smell has worn off, and it would take something as outrageous as George Jetson’s flying-automobile-turned-briefcase to get our attention.
I need another social network like the iPhone needs more apps.
The other factor in all of this is simply the overwhelming amount of social networks out there. The market is completely oversaturated, and most of the new players are merely clones of existing sites with no real key points of differentiation. Or if they do happen to have an unrivaled proposition, the above two barriers to adoption will make it difficult for them to gain any kind of penetration, which brings us to the million dollar question of the day: is it too late to innovate?
Being first to market is always a desirable position, and companies race to launch to achieve this highly coveted status. It certainly worked for Twitter. Even with the advent of other sites like Pownce, FriendFeed and Plurk that have all garnered some substantial share of voice, Twitter is by far still the microblogging leader. And again the ‘Twitter Epidemic’ defies all logic as the strength of the community offsets the myriad of mistakes, mayhem and overall melee they create on an almost hourly basis.
It didn’t, however, work for Friendster as MySpace swept in and cornered the market, demonstrating that there is such a thing as being too soon to market. Friendster may have garnered more success if they’d launched a little later, when the audience was more ‘wired,’ ready — and able — to embrace the social networking movement fully. Most were still on dial up when Friendster launched, making a robust experience difficult, and diminishing the overall value of the concept. Social networks need to function in real time, mirroring the fast pace of their users, so a high speed connection is a must.
But then you have Facebook, who after expanding out of the college arena, took the market by storm, now leading the social networking revolution and giving MySpace more than just a run for their money. They have secured a leadership position, and after Zuckerberg’s announcements at F8 around the future of Facebook Connect, it doesn’t look like they can — or will — be usurped by a newcomer anytime soon. In fact, it seems impossible that another social network will be able to break into this space at all with any sort of notable magnitude.
What actually appears to be happening here is that, as with any product, there’s only room for a few market leaders. And we’ve already got them.
MySpace and Facebook.
Twitter and FriendFeed.
Last.fm and Pandora.
Microsoft and Apple.
Google and Yahoo. (Looks like Cuil won’t be taking a bite out of the search market. Ouch.)
Think about it. This is true across any vertical.
We’ve got Pepsi and Coke. RC Cola never even made a memorable blip on the refreshment industry’s radar screen (though I love the stuff and have been known to shriek with excitement whenever I come across it!).
McDonald’s and Burger King.
Kleenex and Puff’s.
Nike and Adidas.
Kellogg and Post.
Sure, there are others with varying degrees of brand equity within those categories, but for the most part, the market — and we, the consumers — can only handle a few powerhouse products. Everyone can’t be a winner. As a culture built on popularity, someone will always rise to the top. And with the leading social networks off to a seemingly insurmountable head start, I contend that it may, in fact, be too late to innovate. On a grand scale anyway.
Plus, even if the most incredible, original, amazing, ingenious, fantabulous, grounbreaking, awe-inspiring new site came along, it would just probably be gobbled up by Google anyway!
274,000,000,000!
That’s 45 times the population of earth…!
By: Jan on May 13, 2009
at 9:49 am